On the way

For years , I've been shopping through Taobao . It is so easy to choose , click and save my wallet , only delivery sometimes troublesome since I have to have them sent to my mom's and pick them up in Shanghai. Shipping to HK from mainland can cost a lot more and from time to time , restricted by investigation. 

But it is a rapid upgrading website , from only C2C platform to many things more . Shopping mall bringing B2C and Alimama links out bounders blog , IM , email , BBS and even mobile sms. Moreover , several weeks ago , Taobao alliances with Eastern Airline to sell air tickets through high profile press conference with Jack presents . However , air tickets delivery has been function on Taobao for long time. The offline agencies long time ago selling tickets online , deeply discounted , saving time on telephone , delivery , amending mistakes , etc.   This morning , Taobao surprised me by introducing ' Digital , Entertainment ' as a new catalog . Clicking the new function , there is a new world combining QQ zone , Tudou , e-magazine like ' Self ' . 

The model can work fundamentally Taobao owns the transaction records from every buyers and sellers for years , understanding what are the hits and who can afford them. Haven't mentioning Alipay , the paying platform idea from Paypal , but much well applied by functioning paying everything from utility bills, petty cash transaction among friends , and digital card payments for business from online game , to tickets , e-commerce ... It is so popular and large amount of cash flow in and out every minutes that if one day if it would be nationalized , not a surprise. 

How much market capitalization TB would require when listed ? And what is it for ? 

I am thinking about tailor-made my wedding dress from a studio found on Taobao . VW ... girls want them even without grooms...

1) unfair commitments with insider investors , especially with private equity fund

2) new listed company or switching from OTC to main-board

3) transmission business model 

4) upgrading the product mix 

5) changing of key executives 

6) success given by temporary weakened competitors

------------ Lesson of the year ---------------------

In 2008 , the market taught me that ' timing really counts in making investment decision ' , and in 2009 , what refresh my knowledge about investment is that   ' I am making mistake everyday '.

No bubbles, no gain . That's the rule of capital market.

What is more possible to happen ? A company's earnings growth CAGR 100% for three years or CAGR 50% for 10 years ? If either , then why earnings mutiple deserves 100 times ? A GEM is the celebrating party of Private Equity Fund , and nightmere for the secondary market.

In Shanghai , year of 1998 my parents paid 20k for apartment around 100 sqm^2 where four families , grandparents , my two aunties' and mine lived in for already fifteen years to the government . Eleven years later , in 2009 May , we paid 100 times more than that for a similar sized apartment , much modern neighbourhood , of course , but to be delivered in one year to the commerialized government.

But the world needs bubbles. Europe lagged behide the US in internet development , one of the reasons is the less advanced capital market . It is government's administration decision whether to over capex at this stage to stress the determination on carbon dioxide emission cut .